Aventine Partners

Revisiting Scenarios and Tracking Tools

As the first year of the current administration is unfolding, and especially as we embark upon the second Christmas shopping season after last year's economic meltdown, it is interesting to reconsider the four scenarios we constructed in the spring to describe possible future worlds.  After the distractions of a raging stock market this summer, our future path now seems just as unclear as six months ago.

We proposed two dimensions to describe out country's future.  The first was the degree of government involvement, the second the degree of consumerism.  The four scenarios that result -- Lever Lever Land, Euro-America, Do-Over, and Back to Basics -- describe very different futures that can help shape strategy and risk management.

Tipping Point for Online Banks?

Wingspan Bank.  Remember the short-lived online-only bank launched by BankOne in the late 1990s? 

A recent post at Bankwatch called attention to an American Bankers Association survey showing that online had become the most-favored channel for bank customers for the first time. Memories of Wingspan, Telebank, Jupiter Bank, and others that made a go at the online-only business model came flooding back along with the unanswered questions.  Was online-only banking the wrong idea, or was it just the wrong time?  With changing consumer preferences, might we expect a new breed of online-only banks to emerge soon?

Are you a Pragmatist? Traditionalist? Curious?

As part of our continuing Culture Graphics project we've released a public version of our Culture Graphics survey.  One of the insights developed in this effort is the ability to categorize individuals' worldviews into five basic groups:

• Traditionalists
• Modernists 
• Progressives 
• Communitarians 
• Pragmatists   

While we continue to collect data, the academic work in this field and our initial results support the validity of this approach.  We invite you to take the survey yourself (click on the image below) to learn more and share your reactions.